author(s)
Khattab Imran Saleh, Yusra Salim Nayf and Mustafa Ismaeel Khaleel

abstract

This study investigates international wheat price trends and the key factors influencing them during the period 2016-2024, a timeframe marked by considerable geopolitical and economic turbulence. The objective is to analyze wheat price volatility, identify its driving forces, and propose policy solutions to stabilize the market and enhance food security. The research adopts a dual approach, combining descriptive statistical analysis with an econometric model using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression applied to annual time-series data. The model evaluates the effects of oil prices, global wheat demand and supply, and geopolitical conflict (specifically, the Russia-Ukraine war) on international wheat prices.

The results indicate that global wheat production among major exporters increased by 16.1% and exports by 21.1% during the study period. Wheat prices remained relatively stable until 2020 but surged sharply in 2022, reaching a record high of USD 361 per ton—a 41.5% increase over the previous year-primarily due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The OLS results show that oil prices (β₁ = 1.85, p < 0.01) and global demand (β₂ = 0.72, p < 0.05) had significant positive effects on wheat prices, while global supply had a moderating impact (β₃ = -0.65, p < 0.05). A war dummy variable confirmed that the Russia-Ukraine conflict added approximately USD 62.33 per ton to wheat prices.

The study concludes that international wheat markets are highly sensitive to energy prices and geopolitical shocks. It recommends enhancing strategic reserves, improving international coordination, avoiding export restrictions during crises, and aligning agricultural and energy policies to mitigate future price volatility.